WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Monday that many ships loaded with oil are starting to move out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s remarks came as shipping companies in Asia and Europe said confidence in resuming transit through the strategic waterway could take weeks to rebuild. They added that navigation would only restart once full safety assurances are in place, following a US-Iran framework agreement aimed at reopening the strait.
US and Iranian officials are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday to formally end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil prices responded to the developments by falling around five percent on Monday.
Shippers have welcomed the tentative deal but remain cautious, saying they are still awaiting key details such as mine clearance operations and verified security guarantees in the strait.
“The initial reaction in the shipping industry is muted. AIS data shows no significant wave of vessels heading toward Hormuz this morning,” said Jyske Bank analyst Haider Anjum in a note to clients.
He added that shipping firms are likely to wait for confirmation that the agreement holds, noting that the Strait of Hormuz has briefly been declared “open” twice before without sustained stability.
The US-Israeli war with Iran, which began on February 28, has severely disrupted maritime traffic through the strait, a key route for nearly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, as well as essential commodities such as aluminum and urea.
While overall traffic remains limited, India’s Petronet LNG vessel Disha was observed transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to ship tracking data from Kpler and LSEG. The tanker had loaded at Qatar’s Ras Laffan on March 1–2 and had been positioned west of the strait for weeks, with arrival expected at India’s Dahej terminal on June 18, according to an official from India’s shipping ministry.
Shipping association BIMCO said on Monday it still considers transit through the Strait of Hormuz highly risky, citing ongoing concerns over potential naval mines in the area.
“The next step is for shipowners to be reassured that transiting the Strait of Hormuz is not only permitted but also safe,” said Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief safety and security officer.
A spokesperson for the Japanese Shipowners’ Association said the group welcomed the peace agreement but would wait for more concrete and verified information before adjusting operations.
He added that it would be premature to resume full transit based solely on the announcement of a deal, stressing the need for confirmed safety guarantees.
Japan’s major shipping firms echoed this caution, with Nippon Yusen saying it hopes operations return to normal soon, while Mitsui O.S.K. Lines stated it would only resume voyages once safety is fully confirmed.
Germany’s shipowners’ association VDR said it remained cautiously optimistic about the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd said it hoped vessels could begin crossing the strait later this week.
Danish shipping giant Maersk welcomed the agreement but said it was too early to assess its operational impact, adding that no immediate changes had been made to its Middle East routes.
Norwegian shipping firm Wallenius Wilhelmsen also said it was too early to comment on operational implications, while tanker operator Frontline described the development as positive but uncertain.
An estimated 155 tankers carrying oil and chemicals were present in the wider Middle East Gulf region as of June 15, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler, down from 201 at the end of May. Other estimates from Oil Brokerage placed the figure at around 215 vessels.
Analysts said that under normal conditions, the backlog of shipping traffic could clear within 8–10 days once full transit resumes, but warned that recovery would depend on security assurances and insurance normalization.
Experts noted that while some tankers have been quietly moving along Oman’s coast under naval protection, full resumption of trade would require weeks of de-mining operations and stabilization of insurance rates.
Industry observers also cautioned that returning to pre-conflict shipping volumes could take years, with some estimating full normalization as late as 2027, depending on whether the agreement holds and production levels recover steadily.