Washington: In a significant discussion on the ongoing Iran war, senior petroleum and natural resources analyst Tashfeen Qayyum has warned that the escalating conflict could trigger a global economic crisis, driven primarily by disruptions in oil supply and strategic maritime routes.
Speaking in a special program hosted by Asif Ali Bhatti on the platforms of World Watch Alert and Pakistan US Friends Forum, Qayyum emphasized that modern warfare is no longer limited to weapons alone but is increasingly centered around control of critical resources, particularly hydrocarbons and rare minerals.
Providing an overview of the conflict that began on February 28, Qayyum stated that global powers are now engaged in a strategic struggle over energy dominance, with Iran positioned at the center of this geopolitical contest.
According to the analysis, the United States currently produces approximately 21 million barrels of oil per day, while global consumption stands between 116 and 118 million barrels daily. Despite this, the Middle East continues to supply around 31% of the world’s oil, maintaining its strategic importance in global energy markets.
Qayyum highlighted that nearly 80% of global oil is transported via sea routes, making critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal extremely vital.
The Strait of Hormuz alone facilitates the passage of approximately 20.9 million barrels of oil per day, a significant share of global supply.
He further explained that the United States has established a strong military presence in the region to secure these routes, ensuring uninterrupted energy flow.
However, rising tensions now threaten the stability of these critical corridors.A key focus of the discussion was Iran’s Kharg Island, which serves as the backbone of the country’s oil exports.
Nearly 90% of Iran’s oil shipments are routed through this small but strategically crucial island, making it a potential flashpoint in the conflict.
Qayyum noted that repeated US threats to target Kharg Island are part of a pressure strategy rather than immediate military intent.
Any direct attack on this facility could provoke a swift and severe Iranian response, potentially escalating the conflict beyond regional boundaries.
He warned that Iran has already indicated its capability to disrupt regional energy infrastructure within minutes if its own facilities are attacked, which could impact up to 25–30% of global oil supply.
Oil prices have already crossed $100 per barrel, with further increases expected as tensions escalate. This surge is raising serious concerns about a potential global recession, particularly for energy-dependent economies.
In a significant development, Iran has also hinted at selling oil in alternative currencies instead of the US dollar, posing a direct challenge to the petrodollar system. Such a shift could have far-reaching implications for the global financial order.
The report also revealed that the United States has deployed thousands of troops to the Gulf region while urging allies to contribute militarily. However, several countries have shown reluctance to get directly involved in the conflict.
Meanwhile, disruptions in the Bab al-Mandeb route, reportedly influenced by Houthi forces in Yemen, have added another layer of risk to global supply chains.
Qayyum concluded that the conflict is not purely military but also economic, psychological, and strategic in nature. Iran’s firm stance in negotiations, including demands for sanctions relief and compensation, indicates its preparedness for prolonged resistance.
The program concluded with the assessment that the Iran war has evolved beyond a regional confrontation into a global struggle over energy control, economic stability, and geopolitical power—one that could intensify in the coming days.