Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that China’s population fell by 3.39 million, dropping to 1.405 billion — a faster decline than in 2024. The number of births slid sharply to 7.92 million, down 17% from 9.54 million a year earlier, while deaths increased to 11.31 million, up from 10.93 million in 2024.
China’s birth rate fell to a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people, while the death rate climbed to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest level recorded since 1968.
Demographers warn the trend signals deepening structural challenges. “Births in 2025 were roughly at the same level as in 1738, when China’s population was only about 150 million,” said Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
China’s population has been shrinking since 2022 and is ageing rapidly, complicating Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic consumption and manage mounting fiscal pressures.
Data showed that around 23% of China’s population is now aged over 60. By 2035, that figure is expected to reach 400 million, roughly equal to the combined populations of the United States and Italy. The ageing trend is set to shrink the workforce while placing further strain on pension and healthcare systems.
To cope, China has already raised retirement ages, with men now expected to retire at 63 instead of 60, and women at 58 instead of 55.
Long Shadow of the One-Child Policy
Marriages — a key indicator of future birth trends — dropped sharply in 2024, falling by 20% to just 6.1 million, the steepest decline on record. Although authorities eased marriage registration rules in May 2025, allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country, experts believe any boost in births will be temporary.
Marriages rose 22.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, offering brief relief after nearly a decade of decline. Full-year marriage data will be released later.
Authorities are also promoting “positive views on marriage and childbearing” as they try to reverse the social impact of the one-child policy, which ran from 1980 to 2015.
Demographics and Economic Pressure
Urbanisation has further intensified the challenge, with 68% of China’s population living in cities in 2025, compared with 43% in 2005, where the cost of raising children is significantly higher.
Population planning has now become central to China’s economic strategy. Analysts estimate Beijing could spend around 180 billion yuan ($25.8 billion) this year alone to encourage births.
Measures include national child subsidies and a pledge to make pregnancy fully cost-free by 2026, with all medical expenses — including IVF treatments — covered by national health insurance.
Despite these efforts, China’s fertility rate remains among the lowest in the world, at around one birth per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. The pool of women of reproductive age is projected to fall to below 100 million by the end of the century, underscoring the scale of China’s demographic challenge.
China’s population declined for a fourth straight year in 2025, as births plunged to a historic low and deaths continued to rise, according to official data released on Monday.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that China’s population fell by 3.39 million, dropping to 1.405 billion — a faster decline than in 2024. The number of births slid sharply to 7.92 million, down 17% from 9.54 million a year earlier, while deaths increased to 11.31 million, up from 10.93 million in 2024.
China’s birth rate fell to a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people, while the death rate climbed to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest level recorded since 1968.
Demographers warn the trend signals deepening structural challenges. “Births in 2025 were roughly at the same level as in 1738, when China’s population was only about 150 million,” said Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
China’s population has been shrinking since 2022 and is ageing rapidly, complicating Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic consumption and manage mounting fiscal pressures.
Data showed that around 23% of China’s population is now aged over 60. By 2035, that figure is expected to reach 400 million, roughly equal to the combined populations of the United States and Italy. The ageing trend is set to shrink the workforce while placing further strain on pension and healthcare systems.
To cope, China has already raised retirement ages, with men now expected to retire at 63 instead of 60, and women at 58 instead of 55.
Long Shadow of the One-Child Policy
Marriages — a key indicator of future birth trends — dropped sharply in 2024, falling by 20% to just 6.1 million, the steepest decline on record. Although authorities eased marriage registration rules in May 2025, allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country, experts believe any boost in births will be temporary.
Marriages rose 22.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, offering brief relief after nearly a decade of decline. Full-year marriage data will be released later.
Authorities are also promoting “positive views on marriage and childbearing” as they try to reverse the social impact of the one-child policy, which ran from 1980 to 2015.
Demographics and Economic Pressure
Urbanisation has further intensified the challenge, with 68% of China’s population living in cities in 2025, compared with 43% in 2005, where the cost of raising children is significantly higher.
Population planning has now become central to China’s economic strategy. Analysts estimate Beijing could spend around 180 billion yuan ($25.8 billion) this year alone to encourage births.
Measures include national child subsidies and a pledge to make pregnancy fully cost-free by 2026, with all medical expenses — including IVF treatments — covered by national health insurance.
Despite these efforts, China’s fertility rate remains among the lowest in the world, at around one birth per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. The pool of women of reproductive age is projected to fall to below 100 million by the end of the century, underscoring the scale of China’s demographic challenge.