ISLAMABAD: A new analysis has warned that the ongoing Iran conflict has triggered a significant surge in wartime carbon emissions, posing a serious challenge to global climate goals.
Researchers from the Climate and Community Institute, in collaboration with Lancaster University and the University of Energy and Natural Resources, estimate that the first 14 days of the conflict generated approximately 5.1 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide, exceeding the annual emissions of Iceland and equalling the combined yearly output of dozens of low-emitting countries.
Satellite data from Bloomberg Green and investigative consultancy Data Desk also recorded a sharp rise in gas flaring and methane releases from oil and gas facilities across the region.
Civilian infrastructure destruction major source
Researchers said the largest share of emissions came from the destruction of civilian infrastructure rather than battlefield fuel consumption.
According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, around 2,000 civilian buildings were destroyed or severely damaged, including more than 16,000 residential units, thousands of commercial properties, medical centres and schools. The damage alone is estimated to have produced 2.4 million tonnes of CO₂.
Oil facilities targeted
Airstrikes on fuel storage facilities and oil infrastructure further intensified environmental damage. Bombing of fuel depots near Tehran ignited millions of litres of fuel, creating thick smoke clouds and toxic rainfall.
Attacks on oil and gas facilities in Iran and retaliatory strikes in Gulf states burned millions of barrels of oil, producing an estimated 1.9 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. Satellite data also showed increased emissions from major LNG facilities in the UAE and Qatar.
Military operations add to emissions
Military activity has also contributed significantly. Heavy bombers, fighter jets, drones, naval vessels and logistics aircraft are estimated to have consumed 150–270 million litres of fuel in the first two weeks, generating around 529,000 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
Production of replacement military equipment and the use of munitions added further emissions, with analysts estimating an additional 227,000 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent from weapons manufacturing and deployment.
Long-term climate concerns
Experts warn the conflict’s environmental impact will extend far beyond the battlefield. Reconstruction of damaged infrastructure could generate emissions for decades, similar to post-war rebuilding trends seen in recent conflicts.
Scientists caution that such emissions place additional strain on the global carbon budget, already under pressure from rising worldwide emissions.
In addition to climate risks, regional environmental damage — including toxic rainfall from burning fuel depots — could pose long-term health hazards for affected populations.