MUNICH: European leaders signalled a major shift in the continent’s security outlook at the weekend’s Munich Security Conference, amid growing uncertainty over the United States’ long-term commitment to European defence and the future of the NATO alliance.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said the geopolitical landscape had changed irreversibly, warning that “some lines have been crossed that cannot be uncrossed anymore”.
Transatlantic relations have faced strain since the return of Donald Trump to the White House, with his proposal to annex Greenland raising fresh doubts among European governments about Washington’s commitment to protect Europe under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization framework.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered cautious reassurance during his address, saying Washington wanted to cooperate with Europe. However, he criticised Europe’s recent political direction and avoided mentioning NATO, Russia, or the war in Ukraine — issues that have widened differences between the US and its European allies.
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaching its fifth year, European leaders stressed the need to strengthen their own defence capabilities and reduce reliance on the United States. In principle, this aligns with the Trump administration’s expectation that Europe should assume primary responsibility for conventional defence while the US maintains its nuclear deterrent umbrella.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to develop a stronger “European pillar” within NATO. Merz also revealed he had begun discussions with Macron on a possible European nuclear deterrence arrangement.
France currently maintains Europe’s only fully independent nuclear deterrent, while Britain’s Trident system is developed and maintained with US support.
European countries have significantly increased defence spending in recent years, driven by concerns over Russia and pressure from Washington. NATO members agreed to raise core defence spending targets from 2% of GDP to 3.5%, with an additional 1.5% allocated to broader security investments. Von der Leyen said European defence spending had risen nearly 80% since before the Ukraine war began.
Several joint defence initiatives are underway, including the European Long-range Strike Approach (ELSA) missile programme backed by France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Sweden. European nations have also agreed to cooperate on projects such as ballistic missile defence and advanced air-launched munitions.
However, some flagship projects have encountered difficulties. The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) fighter jet programme involving France, Germany and Spain has faced delays due to disagreements over industrial work-sharing. Debates within the European Union have also emerged over whether defence contracts should prioritise European companies or remain open to international competition.
Amid discussions on defence strategy, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy highlighted the ongoing intensity of the war, noting that Ukraine faced more than 6,000 drone attacks and 150 missiles in the past month alone.