ISLAMABAD: The government is preparing a hybrid strategy to manage the anticipated electricity shortfall during the upcoming summer season, as the ongoing Middle East crisis continues to strain fuel supplies. While immediate attention remains on stabilising petroleum availability and prices, officials say the power sector will likely rely on a combination of controlled load-shedding, enforced energy conservation measures, and potential tariff adjustments to meet rising demand.
Senior officials revealed that the Power Division is working on multiple contingency models to cope with reduced supplies of imported fuels such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal, alongside the rising cost of alternatives like furnace oil. LNG, which contributes over one-fifth of Pakistan’s electricity generation, is expected to be largely unavailable from next month, even if regional tensions ease. Similarly, both imported and local coal supplies — together accounting for nearly 30 per cent of power generation — are projected to remain constrained.
To bridge the gap, authorities are considering increased reliance on furnace oil, despite its significantly higher cost. While furnace oil stocks currently exceed 360,000 tonnes — enough to meet demand for nearly a month — its use could substantially raise generation costs. Officials noted that electricity produced using LNG and coal previously cost between Rs13.5 and Rs20 per unit, whereas furnace oil-based generation now stands at around Rs35 per unit, with prices rising further due to disruptions in key النفط supply routes.
The cost pressures are expected to translate into higher fuel cost adjustments for consumers, possibly in the range of Rs10–12 per unit. However, officials acknowledged that passing on the full burden, particularly to industrial consumers, would be challenging. High-speed diesel, an even more expensive option, is not being considered due to its prohibitive cost and essential role in agriculture and transportation.
Electricity demand is expected to surge to 27,000–28,000 megawatts during peak summer months, compared to current peak levels of around 14,000MW. Although increasing solar adoption has reduced daytime grid reliance, supply constraints during peak hours remain a concern. Furnace oil-based plants may be deployed selectively during high-demand periods due to their ability to quickly ramp up output.
Given the supply limitations, the government is likely to implement average daily load-shedding of two to three hours, alongside stricter conservation policies and continued use of automatic tariff adjustment mechanisms. The final plan will depend heavily on natural gas availability, which is expected to decline sharply. Gas supplies to the power sector are projected to drop from around 150 million cubic feet per day in March to just 80mmcfd in the coming months.
To prioritise electricity generation, gas allocations to other sectors may be curtailed further. Supplies to the CNG sector, already reduced by half, could be completely suspended, while partial cuts to fertiliser plants may also be redirected toward power generation.
Compounding the external challenges are internal inefficiencies and administrative disputes within the power sector. Officials pointed to ongoing coordination issues between Pakistan Railways and key coal-fired power plants, which are affecting fuel transportation. As a result, around 1,500 to 1,800MW of coal-based generation capacity is at risk, potentially increasing outages if not resolved promptly.
Coal supply disruptions to major plants, including those in Sahiwal and Jamshoro, have reduced their operational reliability. Together, these facilities currently generate up to 2,000MW but have fuel reserves lasting only a few days. Any further delays in coal delivery could lead to an additional two to three hours of load-shedding nationwide.
The issue also carries financial implications for Pakistan Railways, as coal transport constitutes a significant portion of its freight revenue. While one plant has received approval to shift coal transport to road, others are still in the process, which may further increase costs and ultimately impact consumer electricity tariffs.
Officials confirmed that the matter has been raised with Power Minister Awais Leghari and Railways Minister Hanif Abbasi, with possible intervention expected from the Prime Minister’s Office to resolve the bottlenecks.