ISLAMABAD, Mar 12 (APP): The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, as tensions escalate following airstrikes by the United States and Israel on Iran.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the agency warned that global oil supply is expected to decline by about 8 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, equivalent to nearly 8 percent of worldwide demand, largely due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route along Iran’s coast.
The disruption marks a sharp shift from the agency’s earlier outlook, which had projected a sizeable oil surplus during the first quarter of 2026.
However, the IEA noted that supply could gradually recover in April as Gulf producers adopt alternative export routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Gulf production cut amid escalating conflict
According to the report, several Middle Eastern oil producers—including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—have collectively reduced production by at least 10 million bpd due to the ongoing conflict.
The agency warned that oil fields and infrastructure affected by the crisis could take weeks or even months to return to normal operations depending on the complexity of facilities and the availability of workers and equipment.
Oil prices surge
Oil markets reacted sharply to the developments as Iran intensified attacks on regional oil and transport infrastructure.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil rose about 5 percent on Thursday to nearly $97 per barrel, after reaching $119.50 per barrel earlier this week, its highest level since mid-2022.
Strategic reserves released
To ease market pressure, the IEA announced the release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves held by member countries.
Speaking in Istanbul, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the move had already produced a “strong impact” on global energy markets, which he described as being in an “extremely critical period.”
Demand outlook revised
The crisis is also affecting global oil demand as airlines cancel flights and economic uncertainty rises.
The IEA said world oil demand could fall by around 1 million bpd during March and April compared with earlier forecasts.
For the full year 2026, global oil demand is now expected to increase by 640,000 bpd, which is 210,000 bpd lower than the previous estimate and about **half the growth projected by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Supply still expected to exceed demand
Despite the current disruption, the agency expects global oil supply to grow faster than demand over the course of 2026.
Worldwide supply is projected to increase by 1.1 million bpd this year, although that is lower than the 2.4 million bpd increase forecast in the previous report.
Overall, the IEA expects global supply to exceed demand by 2.46 million bpd in 2026, a reduced surplus compared with 3.73 million bpd estimated last month.
Efforts by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to expand export routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz could help stabilize markets and partially offset supply losses from April onward, the agency added.