{"id":2159,"date":"2026-03-12T06:59:25","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T06:59:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.worldwatchalert.com\/?p=2159"},"modified":"2026-03-12T06:59:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T06:59:27","slug":"us-assessment-says-iran-regime-not-at-risk-of-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.worldwatchalert.com\/?p=2159","title":{"rendered":"US assessment says Iran regime not at risk of collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON\/NEW YORK: United States intelligence assessments indicate that the leadership of Iran remains largely intact and is not at immediate risk of collapse despite nearly two weeks of continuous bombardment by the United States and Israel, according to sources familiar with the findings.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Officials said multiple intelligence reports prepared in recent days concluded that the Iranian government continues to maintain control over the country and the public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A source familiar with the assessments said the reports provided \u201cconsistent analysis that the regime is not in danger\u201d of collapse and still retains authority inside Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The findings come as political pressure grows in the United States due to rising global oil prices linked to the conflict. US President Donald Trump has indicated that the large-scale American military operation against Iran could end \u201csoon.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts say reaching an acceptable conclusion to the conflict could prove difficult if Iran\u2019s hardline leadership remains firmly in control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The intelligence analysis highlights the continued cohesion of Iran\u2019s leadership even after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 during the first day of US and Israeli strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israeli officials have also privately acknowledged that there is no certainty the military campaign will lead to the collapse of the Iranian government, according to a senior Israeli official.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Officials cautioned that the situation inside Iran remains fluid and could evolve depending on developments on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment on the intelligence findings, while the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shifting objectives<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Since launching their military campaign, the United States and Israel have targeted several Iranian facilities, including air defence systems, nuclear-related sites and members of the country\u2019s senior leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the initial announcement of the operation, President Trump urged Iranians to \u201ctake over your government,\u201d though senior US officials later clarified that regime change was not the official objective of the campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and high-ranking commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful paramilitary force that plays a major role in Iran\u2019s security and economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite those losses, intelligence assessments indicate that the IRGC and interim leaders who assumed power following Khamenei\u2019s death continue to maintain control over state institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this week, the Assembly of Experts declared Khamenei\u2019s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Iran\u2019s new supreme leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A source familiar with Israeli discussions said Israel does not intend to allow remnants of the former Iranian leadership to remain in power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts note that toppling the Iranian government through the current air campaign alone appears unlikely and could require a ground offensive that would enable large-scale protests inside the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trump administration has not ruled out the possibility of deploying US ground troops in Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kurdish groups and intelligence concerns<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Recent reports indicated that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighbouring Iraq had consulted with US officials about the possibility of launching attacks on Iranian security forces in western Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such operations could potentially stretch Iran\u2019s security apparatus and create space for domestic unrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abdullah Mohtadi, leader of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, said thousands of young people inside Iranian Kurdistan could take up arms against the government if they received US support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, recent US intelligence assessments suggest the Kurdish groups currently lack the manpower and weaponry required to sustain a prolonged conflict with Iranian security forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kurdistan Regional Government, which administers the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq where the groups are based, did not immediately comment on the reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to sources, Kurdish groups have recently sought weapons and armoured vehicles from US officials and lawmakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Trump, however, said last week that he had ruled out sending Iranian Kurdish groups into Iran as part of the ongoing conflict.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON\/NEW YORK: United States intelligence assessments indicate that the leadership of Iran remains largely intact and is not at immediate risk of collapse despite nearly two weeks of continuous bombardment… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2160,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[1687,1679,1689,1491,1688,1423],"class_list":["post-2159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world","tag-iran-leadership","tag-iran-us-conflict","tag-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps","tag-middle-east-war","tag-us-intelligence","tag-war-against-iran"],"yoast_head":"\nUS assessment says Iran regime not at risk of collapse - World Watch Alert<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US intelligence says Iran\u2019s leadership remains stable despite US-Israel airstrikes and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldwatchalert.com\/?p=2159\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US assessment says Iran regime not at risk of collapse - 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